Win Predictions by Driver

I wouldn't even try to pick championships now that it's a total one-race crapshoot. It would be something like picking NCAA basketball tournament champions many years in advance. You can predict which teams will be good based on who historically has good recruiting, but when something is one-and-done and the best team often doesn't win (even less often than with the Latford system) I don't really see a point in predicting that.

You seem to be way overrating recent ARCA drivers (Creed, Eckes, Mayer, Smith, Ankrum, etc...) and also overrating recent truck drivers (Gragson, Cindric). When you consider that the vast majority of championship contenders from those series don't win more than a handful of Cup races, I think you're giving all these drivers way too many. I could only really see Cindric winning in a fluke. How many people jumped straight from road racing with relatively minimal oval experience and actually succeeded? If even the likes of Montoya failed from this perspective, Cindric is not winning ten races.

You seem to be underrating people who are already in the series who I would guess have a shot at winning more than that (Stenhouse, Almirola, Bowman, Suarez.) Most ARCA regulars - even most ARCA championship contenders - don't even make it to Cup. I would say the best predictor of Cup success is already being in Cup. Not all of Kyle Busch's truck development drivers are going to make it. I wouldn't even say Byron is a guaranteed success after last year but I think he has a better shot of it than all those ARCA drivers you gave 10 wins.

Harrison Burton and Todd Gilliland you may be right because the name power should give them staying power. I like Hemric but something tells me he'll be really anonymous like Menard was. The only reason Hemric was doing better than say Menard was in 2006 was basically because the Cup regulars were legislated out of a lot of races.

The Kyles could hit those marks but I don't think they will. I think the number of race wins you've added is probably more than will be on the schedule for the next 15 years, but I'm not sure about that. I think I'd flip Elliott and Blaney around. I do kind of agree with you about Ross Chastain. Maybe in a few days I'll make my list, but I'd probably generally award more wins to the drivers currently in Cup, and fewer wins to the unproven outsiders.

I'm not sure of all of them but I'm pretty confident Ky Busch will pass Richard Petty for most wins across all 3 series. He's close already. I say he finishes with 88 wins.

As for Larson, I'll say 62 wins for him.