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Post by Canadianfan on Nov 5, 2018 13:12:05 GMT -5
Race Start Time: Sunday, Nov. 11th 2:30pm EST, on NBC
Qualifying Start Time: Friday, Nov. 9th 7:00pm EST, on NBCSN
Race Length: 312 Laps - 312 Miles (75-150-312 Lap Stages)
Bobby Hamilton celebrates the first NASCAR Cup win of his career the 1996 Dura Lube 500. It was Petty Enterprises first win since the 1983 Miller High Life 500.
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Post by Mile501 on Nov 5, 2018 13:32:44 GMT -5
The way the points currently look, it will either take a win by one of the guys ranked 5th-8th or a massive problem for Kyle Busch or Martin Truex in order for there to be a change in who is in the final four at Homestead. Apart from Harvick, the other 3 SHR drivers haven't shown in past races at Phoenix that they're likely to pull that off. Of course, anything can happen, but it's not likely.
Chase Elliott, who came within 10 laps of winning at Phoenix a year ago and who has a lot of momentum right now, could be the spoiler. But he will almost certainly have to win in order to advance, as he's currently 39 points out of a top 4 position.
Personally, I think the top 4 will remain unchanged, and I hope it does. The current top 4 drivers are also the top 4 in full-season points, which would make this the fairest championship battle since the elimination playoff format was introduced. Based on stats such as top-5 finishes and laps led, they're also the 4 best drivers this season.
If those 4 do advance to Homestead, Harvick or Kyle Busch is likely to be the champion, and either of them has had a championship-worthy season. Truex hasn't seemed quite as strong recently, and Logano has made enough enemies that I think it will be nearly impossible for him to win the title.
It would be unfortunate if something happens to Kyle Busch at Phoenix that knocks him out of contention, because he and Harvick are certainly the ones we should be watching battle for this championship. Under a full-season point format, they're currently tied.
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Post by JSPorts on Nov 5, 2018 14:45:41 GMT -5
I've thought about this more since last night, and I have a different answer for the poll.
I think Elliott will win at ISM. In 5 starts there, he's only finished outside the top 10 once, and his aforementioned 2017 fall race nearly resulted in victory.
So my final 4 are:
Kevin Harvick - Texas winner
Chase Elliott - ISM winner
Joey Logano - Martinsville winner
Kyle Busch - points
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Post by JSPorts on Nov 5, 2018 14:54:02 GMT -5
Top 4 in non-playoff standings:
1st: Kevin Harvick (ADVANCED)
2nd: Kyle Busch (+28)
3rd: Joey Logano (ADVANCED)
4th: Martin Truex, Jr. (+25)
Currently, the top 4 in non-playoff standings are the 4 drivers poised to make it to Homestead. I'd be pleased with this result.
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Post by Mile501 on Nov 5, 2018 15:24:47 GMT -5
If there is another winner and either Kyle Busch or Truex fail to advance, here is how they compare (points earned) in the last 3 races at Phoenix:
2018 Spring: Busch 52, Truex 41
2017 Fall: Truex 44, Busch 41
2017 Spring: Busch 47, Truex 26
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Post by JSPorts on Nov 5, 2018 15:26:49 GMT -5
Kyle has also led the most laps in the last 2 spring races there, but has been unlucky not to win either of those races.
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Post by Mile501 on Nov 5, 2018 15:33:12 GMT -5
So, all things considered, Kyle Busch is in good shape to advance unless something catastrophic happens at Phoenix. Seeing as how he has only had 3 mechanical-related DNFs in the last 5 seasons combined, and he's only had 1 DNF at Phoenix in 26 races there, he will most likely advance no matter who wins the race. But, of course, anything can happen on race day.
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Post by JSPorts on Nov 5, 2018 15:53:07 GMT -5
The only reason I'd be concerned if I were him is that Elliott could win and Truex could out-point him. It's very unlikely, but not impossible. Elliott was fast there last fall, and if something happens to Busch in qualifying, he could get beat out on stage points by Martin.
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Post by JSPorts on Nov 6, 2018 11:11:46 GMT -5
Entry list: www.racing-reference.info/entrylist/2018-35/W/ENotes: -Matt Kenseth will drive the #6 Wyndham Rewards Ford for Jack Roush -D.J. Kennington will drive the #7 APC / Northern Provincial Pipelines Chevrolet for Jay Robinson -The #51 Jacob Companies Ford for Rick Ware is TBA -Cole Whitt will drive the #72 Standard Plumbing Supply Chevrolet for Bryan Smith -The Gaunt Brothers #96 is not entered -Victor Obaika's #97 is not entered -The StarCom Racing #99 is not entered 38 cars are entered, so all will make the race. |
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Post by Canadianfan on Nov 6, 2018 13:51:10 GMT -5
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Post by JSPorts on Nov 6, 2018 15:12:29 GMT -5
Seems like the 38 has a different sponsor every week.
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Post by Canadianfan on Nov 6, 2018 15:28:55 GMT -5
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Post by Chad's Hair Plugs on Nov 6, 2018 15:44:04 GMT -5
That paint scheme only works if BK's wearing an ugly xmas firesuit too.
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Post by JSPorts on Nov 6, 2018 16:23:14 GMT -5
They need to get him a special fire suit like the Red Bull guys wear. I agree.
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Post by Canadianfan on Nov 6, 2018 18:40:30 GMT -5
Entry list: www.racing-reference.info/entrylist/2018-35/W/ENotes: -Matt Kenseth will drive the #6 Wyndham Rewards Ford for Jack Roush -D.J. Kennington will drive the #7 APC / Northern Provincial Pipelines Chevrolet for Jay Robinson -The #51 Jacob Companies Ford for Rick Ware is TBA -Cole Whitt will drive the #72 Standard Plumbing Supply Chevrolet for Bryan Smith -The Gaunt Brothers #96 is not entered -Victor Obaika's #97 is not entered -The StarCom Racing #99 is not entered 38 cars are entered, so all will make the race. |
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